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Jokowi Sulit Menang Di Pilpres 2019

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Jokowi Sulit Menang Di Pilpres 2019

Berita Islam 24H - Pilpres 2019 masih belasan bulan. Tetapi bagi kalangan yang berkepentingan, belasan bulan itu, sama dengan tinggal belasan hari saja.

Sejalan dengan waktu yang sudah sangat dekat dengan momen politik itu, makin intens pula kegiatan para analis, pelobi dan konsultan politik. Semuanya sibuk membuat proyeksi. Isinya tentang siapa kira-kira yang akan menjadi Presiden RI periode 2019-2024.

Joko Widodo sebagai petahana masih diperhitungkan, tetapi nasibnya sangat tergantung pada figur pesaingnya. Yang bisa dikemukakan, memenangi Pilpres 2019, bagi Jokowi merupakan sebuah pekerjaan yang maha berat.

"Jokowi sangat sulit memenangi Pilpres 2019", begitu reaksi beberapa di antara mereka yang bertukar pikiran dengan penulis, secara terpisah baru-baru ini.

Sebuah kesimpulan sementara. Yang mungkin tidak enak didengar ataupun diterima oleh para relawan dan pendukung Jokowi. Berhubung mereka sudah mematok bekas Walikota Solo tersebut sebagai "Presiden Dua Periode".

Walaupun masih bersifat sementara, namun penilaian di atas memiliki alasan yang cukup menarik dan secara logika, masuk akal sehat.

Di 2019, peluang Jokowi menipis. Terutama akibat Presiden ke-7 RI ini gagal memenuhi hampir semua atau sebagian besar janji-janjinya di masa kampanye.

Sekalipun disadari kesulitan yang dihadapi Jokowi saat melanjutkan kepememimpin RI dari tangan SBY, cukup tinggi, akan tetapi persoalan itu, tak bisa dijadikan alasan. Terutama karena rakyat yang memilihnya berpegang pada janji dan program kerjanya.

Banyak di antara mereka tidak kenal siapa Jokowi, saat kampanye kecuali janjinya. Jadi rakyat butuh bukti atas apa yang dijanjikan.

Satu contoh saja misalnya. Yakni janji mengatasi pengangguran. Janji ini tak kunjung terwujud. Sekedar menjadi sebuah pepesan kosong belaka.

Ketidakberhasilan atau juga ketidakmampuannya, apakah karena situasi ekonomi sehingga tidak memungkinkan atau investasi yang tidak mampu menyedot tenaga kerja yang menjadi kendala?

Hal di atas tetap tak bisa dijadikan sebagai alasan atau “excuse”.

"Promise remains a promise," ujar seorang pengamat.

Di Pilpres 2014, Jokowi bisa terpilih karena faktor dalam dan luar negeri. Dua-duanya kondusif mendukung.

Tapi di tahun 2019, keduanya, sudah berubah total. Realita baru adalah perubahan.

Di pihak lain, Jokowi nampaknya masih cukup percaya dengan berbagai hasil survei yang bermunculan akhir-akhir ini.Semuanya menawarkan pujian.

Beberapa survei mmemang masih menunjukkan keunggulan. Tingkat popularitas dan elektabilitas Jokowi sebagai kandidat Presisen 2019, tetap tinggi.

Tetapi hasil survei itu hanya merujuk pada situasi tahun 2017. Bukan memprediksi Pilpres 2019.

Situasi 2019, akan sangat berbeda dengan 2017. Terutama jumlah pemilih baru. Sehingga survei itu, akan misleading. Menggunakannya sebagai pegangan tetap akan keliru.

Begitu pula memang ada survei yang menunjukkan Indonesia masuk dalam ranking atas terhadap tingkat kepuasan masyarakat pada pemerintahannya. Yang bisa ditafsirkan, bahwa berkat kepemimpinan Jokowi maka kepuasan responden bisa seperti itu.

Tapi survei itu juga bukan sebuah jaminan.

Sebab puas dipimpin oleh Jokowi hingga paruh waktu pemerintahannya, tidak menjamin, masih akan memilih Jokowi di Pilpres 2019.

Sebab yang perlu diperhitungkan, faktor perubahan yang diakibatkan oleh berbagai situasi. Dan perubahan yang terjadi dalam belasan bulan ke depan, tak terelakkan.

Perubahan akibat situasi antara lain bisa jadi karena figur lain yang akan menjadi pesaing Jokowi di Pilpres 2019, bisa lebih meyakinkan dalam berjanji.

Figur mana boleh jadi akan dianggap lebih kapabel ketimbang Jokowi. Maka terjadi pergeseran ataupun perubahan.

“Hal yang permanen dalam hidup ini adalah perubahan. Tidak pernah terjadi sebuah kondisi detik ini akan sama dengan kondisi satu jam kemudian. Bahkan satu detik kemudian, sangat berbeda. Itulah rumus perubahan”, sebuah perumpamaan yang diberikan sebagai penguat atas definisi perubahan.

Dalam kerberhasilan Jokowi memenangi Pilpres 2014, peristiwa itu, menjadi rujukan.

Jokowi dianggap seperti memenangi sebuah “loterei” yang menjanjikan sebuah perubahan. Masyarakat membutuhkan perubahan. Terutama setelah SBY berkuasa selama 10 tahun.

Janji SBY 10 tahun sebelumnya, memiliki “magnitude”. Tapi setelah itu menjadi “hambar”. Dalam arti semantik, di masyarakat terjadi semacam kekosongan.

Saat itulah bertemu kepentingan yang sama antara masyarakat banyak dan kehadiran Jokowi sebagai pembawa angin perubahan.

Dalam bidang politik, Jokowi makin terbantu atas keberhasilan PDIP di Pemilihan Legislatif.

PDIP, salah satu partai tertua dan pernah menjadi penguasa di tahun 2001-2004, di tahun 2014, muncul sebagai partai pengusung Jokowi.

Kebetulan PDIP meraih suara terbanyak di Pemilu Legislatif 9 April 2014. Kemenangan mana yang mengubah peta politik.

Dan ketika PDIP memilih Jokowi sebagai kandidat Presiden, keputusan ini melengkapi kekosongan yang ditunggu masyarakat.

Dua perubahan tersebut menjadikan faktor penentu sehingga Jokowi bisa meraih suara lebih banyak dibanding tokoh lainnya.

Lalu faktor luar negeri, juga kurang lebih sama. Membutuhkan adanya perubahan di Indonesia.

Disukai atau tidak, diakui ataupun dibantah, faktor Amerika Serikat (AS) ikut menentukan siapa yang bisa jadi Presiden RI, di tahun 2014 itu.

Tahun itu AS tidak punya pilihan lain kecuali Joko Widodo. Di Pilpres 2014 rakyat Indonesia pun dipaksa memilih Jokowi atau Prabowo Subianto.

AS yang konon tidak menyukai Prabowo Subianto mendapatkan momentum. Maka ketika mantan Danjen Kopassus ini menjadi pesaing Jokowi, AS pun bersikap dan seperti sebuah ungkapan “pucuk dicinta ulam tiba”.

AS yang selalu mengungkit pelanggaran HAM oleh militer termasuk Prabowo, menemukan Jokowi, seorang sipil yang harus mengalahkan seorang Jenderal. AS pun memperkuat dukungannya terhadap Jokowi.

Tak kurang Dubes AS (waktu itu) Robert Blake bahu membahu dengan seorang pebisnis Indonesia yang dikenal mewakili kepentingan CSIS, memperkuat lobi dan dukungan terhadap Jokowi. CSIS dikenal sebagai agen perubahan AS di Indonesia. Di era Orde Baru, lembaga “think tank” ini dikenal sebagai pemasok Menteri, Duta Besar, Petinggi MIliter, Anggota Parlemen dalam sistem terpadu pemerintahan yang dipimpin Presiden Soeharto.

Di era Ali Murtopo sebagai tokoh sentral CSIS, lembaga ini menyusun konsep pembangunan Indonesia untuk masa 25 tahun pertama. Salah satu buku Ali Murtopo yang didisiminasi oleh CSIS berjudul "Akselarasi dan Modernisasi Pembangunan Indonesia".

Maka keberpihakan AS bersama CSIS kepada Jokowi, tak bisa dicegah oleh siapapun. Tapi di 2019, baik situasi dalam maupun luar, berubah total.

Dalam negeri, ada anggapan, Jokowi gagal memenuhi janji-janjinya selama kampanye. Kegagalan ditebusnya dengan cara “blusukan”. Untuk waktu beberapa kali, “blusukan”-nya bisa diterima. Sebagai “kompensasi” Jokowi atas apa yang dijanjikannya di masa kampanye Pilpres.

Tapi seterusnya, setelah “blusukan” berusia 3 tahun, konstituen Jokowi pun mulai ada yang merasa jenuh. Apalagi yang tidak mendukungnya. Sebab bukan itu yang dibutuhkan.

Jokowi kemudian tampil sebagai sosok, figur yang berkepribadian baik. Kesan itu sangat kuat. Persoalannya berubah.

Nah yang dibutuhkan masyarakat dari seorang Jokowi sebagai pemimpin atau Presiden, bukan perubahan seperti itu. Negara yang menghadapi berbagai persoalan, tidak bisa atau tidak cukup dijawab dengan cara menampilkan seorang Presiden sebagai orang baik.

Saking baiknya, ada anggapan, Jokowi justru timbulkan persoalan baru. Yaitu dia tidak bebas memerintah. Jokowi tersandera. Presiden tersandera oleh orang-orang yang berutang budi padanya.

Tersandera, sebab dia tidak ingin menyakiti orang yang pernah membantunya. Dia tidak mau berseberangan dengan mereka.

Akibatnya yang menikmati kekuasaan bahkan kesejahteraan hanya Jokowi dan mereka yang “menyanderanya”. Sementara rakyat banyak menjadi korban. Jumlahnya tak sebanding. Rakyat yang menjadi korban relatif lebih banyak dengan mereka dimana Jokowi berutang budi.

Konsekwensinya muncul sikap yang menurunkan penilaian teradap kapabilitas dan integritas Jokowi sebagai pemimpin.

“Yang dibutuhkan dari seorang Presiden, bukan sekedar dia baik. Tapi apakah dia mampu mengatasi persoalan yang dirasakan beban oleh rakyat”.

Salah satu kasus yang cukup ramai disorot, skandal yang melibatkan Setya Novanto, yang nota bene elit pemimpin. Setnov dikenal sebagai Ketua Umum DPP Partai Golkar dan Ketua DPR RI.

“Dalam skandal e-KTP nama Setnov terlalu sering dipersepsikan oleh KPK sebagai salah seorang politisi yang terlibat dalam skandal tersebut. Dalam kasus ini, KPK oleh masyarakat dianggap kredibel. Dan itu tercermin dari reaksi masyarakat di berbagai media sosial”.

“Tapi Presiden Jokowi nampaknya tidak memahami dan menangkap kegelisahan rakyat. Rakyat yang gelisah, berharap Presiden ‘berpihak’ kepada KPK. Tapi alasan Presiden bahwa pemerintah tidak bisa mencampuri urusan hukum, itulah yang mengecewakan masyarakat”.

Alasan Presiden, menjadi absurd.

Sebab untuk membubarkan Ormas yang anti Panca-Sila, Presiden mampu membuat Perpu, Peraturan Pemerintah Pengganti Undang-Undang. Pertanyaan orang awam, apakah terhadap tersangka yang sudah diumumkan KPK, tidak bisa “diperpukan”? Bukankah dampak kerusakan skandal itu sama besarnya dengan yang ditimbulkan oramas anti-Pancasila ?

Sehingga yang muncul situasi adanya sikap kontra produktif terhadap kepemimpinan Jokowi. Hal mana semakin menaikkan sikap untuk tidak memihak ataupun memilih Jokowi.

Presiden dinilai tidak “firm” dalam pemberantasan korupsi. Ternyata, jika sudah menyangkut elit tertentu, Presideen tidak memiliki keberanian bersikap.

Terhadap skandal korupsi manakala sudah menyentuh elit pemimpin, Presiden “mendua” atau mungkin “galau”.

“Lalu apakah rakyat salah jika menganggap Presiden bersikap kompromistis dengan sesama elit?” Bertanya sang analis. Pertanyaan mana yang dijawabnya sendiri : “tentu saja tidak”.

Rakyat tidak bisa disalahkan. Sebab mereka bukan pembuat kebijakan. Dan pemimpin yang meremehkan suara rakyat, sudah pasti tidak akan mendapat simpati dan empati rakyat.

Konklusinya, rakyat yang merasa suara mereka diremehkan, tidak mungkin akan memberika suara mereka kepada pihak yang meremehkan kepentingan mereka.

Rakyat tidak ingin memberikan suara mereka kepada yang tidak mampu menepati janjinya. Rakyat tidak mau suaranya menjadi sia-sia.

Oleh Derek Manangka, wartawan senior

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